Mexicans will vote Sunday in a groundbreaking election on several fronts: It will be the largest race in the country's history, it is already among the most violent in recent times and it will likely put a woman in the presidency for the first time. never time.
The two main contenders, who according to polls have widely divided the electorate, are women. The favorite is Claudia Sheinbaum, a climate scientist who represents the ruling party and its allies. Her closest competitor is Xóchitl Gálvez, a businesswoman on a ticket that includes a collection of opposition parties.
Mrs. Sheinbaum he had a double-digit lead in the polls for months, but the opposition has argued that these numbers underestimate true support for their candidate. In an interview, Gálvez said that “there is an anti-system vote” and that if Mexicans show up in force on Sunday “we will win.”
“She has the mentality of being 30 points ahead,” Gálvez said of her rival. “But he's going to get the surprise of his life.”
The contest showcases the immense strides made in Mexican politics in recent years by women, who weren't even allowed to vote in the country until 1953. Both leading candidates have considerable experience; Ms. Gálvez was a senator and Ms. Sheinbaum governed the capital, one of the largest cities in the hemisphere.
“For the first time in 200 years of a republic, we women will rise to the highest honor our people can give us: the presidency of Mexico,” Ms. Sheinbaum said in a recent speech.
Yet much of the race has focused on a figure who is not on the ballot, but who looms large: the powerful current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
López Obrador has been a fixture of Mexican politics for decades, running for president in all three previous elections before finally winning by a landslide in 2018.
Although widely popular, López Obrador has been a polarizing figure, drawing adulation from die-hard fans and vitriol from critics. His administration doubled the minimum wage and used cash transfer programs to help millions out of poverty, empowering the military and pursuing measures that many warned would weaken democratic institutions.
Her rule has upended establishment politics, pushing three parties, right, center and left, to form an easy union that now supports Ms. Gálvez.
Ms. Sheinbaum appealed to voters primarily by promising to carry on her legacy. Gálvez has cast herself as an alternative for those unhappy with López Obrador's leadership, promising to reverse many of his policies.
“The way this election played out is a testament to the impact López Obrador has had on Mexican politics,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst. “It is the center around which political identities and political positions are defined.”
Whoever succeeds Mr. López Obrador will face daunting challenges.
Cartel violence continues to plague the country, displacing people en masse and fueling one of the deadliest election cycles in recent Mexican history. López Obrador has turned the government's attention to addressing the causes of violence instead of declaring war on criminal groups, a strategy he called “hugs, not bullets.”
Ms. Gálvez criticized this approach.
“Enough with hugging criminals and bullets citizens,” he joked during the election campaign. She said he would withdraw the armed forces from civilian activities and direct them to focus on fighting organized crime, while strengthening the police.
Ms. Sheinbaum said she would continue to focus on the social causes of violence, but would also work to reduce rates of impunity and strengthen the National Guard.
Economically, the opportunities are clear: Mexico is now the United States' largest trading partner, benefiting from the recent shift in manufacturing away from China. The currency is so strong that it has been labeled a “super peso.”
But there are also latent problems. The federal deficit this year it has risen to about 6%.and Pemex, the national oil company, operates under a mountain of debt, straining public finances.
“The fiscal risk we are facing right now is something we haven't seen in decades,” said Mariana Campos, director of México Evalúa, a public policy research group.
Another challenge involves the expansive new responsibilities afforded to the military, which has been tasked with managing ports and airports, running an airline and building a railway through the Mayan jungle. Ms. Sheinbaum said “there is no militarization” of the country, suggesting that it is open to reevaluate military involvement in public companies.
In addition to these pressing domestic challenges, the fate of the next president will be intertwined with the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. A reelection victory for President Biden would provide continuity, but a return of Donald J. Trump to the White House would likely be much less predictable.
Trump's plans to round up undocumented people on a large scale and deport them to their home countries could target millions of Mexicans living in the United States. He has already threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese cars made in Mexico.
Then there is the thorny issue of fentanyl, which, according to the American government, the cartels produce in Mexico using chemicals imported from China. Trump has suggested taking military action to combat the fentanyl trade.
Managing such pressure from Washington, even in the form of incendiary campaign rhetoric, could prove a challenge for Mexico's next president.
Ms. Sheinbaum said Mexico would have “good relations” with Trump or Biden as president, and her campaign team said it would continue to work to contain migrant flows.
Ms. Gálvez said she, too, would feel comfortable working with either man.
When asked how she would handle Trump, she responded: “I'm used to dealing with toxic masculinity.”
“It seems to me that Trump, at his core, is a pragmatic man,” he said, adding: “what he wants is to solve the problems at the border and with fentanyl, and I think we can do that.”
Emiliano Rodríguez Mega contributed reporting from Mexico City.
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