Claudia Sheinbaum's Morena party dominates Mexican elections

Vote counting is still underway, but this much is clear: Mexico's ruling left-wing party dominated Sunday's elections.

Claudia Sheinbaum, the first woman and first Jewish person to be elected president, beat her opponent by as many as 30 percentage points or more on Sunday, early reports show. She and her Morena party were expected to win, but they outperformed pre-election polls: She won a larger share of the vote than any other presidential candidate in decades, and her party and its allies are on hand to claim a sufficiently large majority in Congress. to implement constitutional changes that have alarmed the opposition.

Preliminary results show that Morena took seven of the nine governorships up for grabs – including the most important, Mexico City – and won absolute majorities in at least 22 of the 32 state legislatures.

The elections served as a referendum on the nearly six-year mandate of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the current president, reflecting that a solid majority of the electorate supported his management of the country.

“We will take the whole issue in this election,” Mario Delgado, the head of the Morena party, said in a speech Sunday.

During López Obrador's tenure, millions of people rose out of poverty, the minimum wage doubled, and pensions became available to many more Mexicans. But he has also empowered the military, prioritized fossil fuels and promoted measures that critics say could weaken Mexico's democratic institutions.

However, concerns about such moves have failed to dissuade most voters from supporting Ms. Sheinbaum, who is Mr. López Obrador's protégé, and their party.

“The voters gave Claudia a mandate that very few dared to foresee,” said John Feeley, deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Mexico from 2009 to 2012. “Claudia cleaned house.”

For some critics, however, the rise of a Morena party with much tighter control over both houses of Congress has already raised alarm. They warn that with a supermajority, the party could push through controversial legislation backed by López Obrador, potentially dismantling crucial checks on presidential power.

“I had ruled out that Morena had a blank check to do what they wanted. But that's what we're seeing now,” said Roberta Lajous, a Mexican diplomat who has served as the country's ambassador to four countries. “The democratic system has been used to limit democracy.”

The systemic changes proposed by López Obrador would, among other things, reduce the number of lawmakers in Congress; eliminate many independent regulators, transferring their functions to federal agencies; and make Supreme Court justices subject to election by popular vote. He is also seeking to have election officials chosen by popular vote, a measure that critics warn would weaken their independence.

The opposition in Congress had thwarted those ambitions – until now.

“There seems to be a consensus among a large part of the population to say, 'Go ahead with your project,'” said Sergio López Ayllón, a law professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico and consultant to institutions such as the Mexican Senate and the Supreme Court.

But there is still a piece of the puzzle missing for Morena and two smaller parties in his electoral alliance to exercise complete control over the legislation. Early results show the alliance will gain an absolute two-thirds majority in the Chamber of Deputies, allowing it to pass constitutional amendments, but could fall a few seats short in the Senate. If that happens, legal experts say, he may still be able to cobble together a supermajority by striking deals with other lawmakers.

“They will have to negotiate something,” López Ayllón said. And if they obtain the necessary seats in the Senate, he added, “this will open a path that will lead to very rapid constitutional changes.”

One unknown is how committed Ms. Sheinbaum, who takes office on Oct. 1, really will be to carrying forward the changes introduced by López Obrador in February and which she quickly adopted as her own. Although she has publicly defended her proposals, analysts have also said that she had no choice but to fully support López Obrador during the election campaign.

Election officials are expected to announce final election results this week.

The Mexican peso fell more than 3% on Monday, a rare drop for a currency that has recently remained strong against the dollar. Financial strategists say the nervousness in financial markets reflects broader unease about a potential erosion of checks and balances, which could expand the government's role in the economy.

A major concern for businesses is the potential “election of Supreme Court justices and the virtual evisceration of the independence of regulators,” said Roberta Jacobson, former U.S. ambassador to Mexico.

Electing judges could subject them to political pressure, critics say, making them beholden to political leaders and less willing to rule against their political masters. The move, Jacobson said, could affect companies' ability to get a fair hearing on disputes, both with regulators and the judiciary.

“What you're doing is maintaining these bodies, but taking away every fig leaf of independence by handing their functions over to the executive branch,” he said of the regulators. “This would eliminate any pretense of independence and give that power to the presidency.”

Ms. Sheinbaum has signaled an openness to working with the private sector, saying in a speech to supporters Monday morning: “We will respect entrepreneurial freedom and honestly promote and facilitate domestic and foreign private investment.”

It is possible that she will make these measures a priority “given the importance of this to the project and López Obrador's legacy,” Jacobson said. But, she added: “The other possibility is that he lets it languish without ever pushing for a vote.”

Yet another scenario is causing anxiety among government critics. The new Congress will overlap briefly in September with the final month of López Obrador's term, giving him the chance to push through structural changes if the ruling party manages to gain an absolute majority in the Senate.